What’s not going to change?
By Jurat Nortojiev · · 2 min read
People ask, “What’s the future of this industry?”
Nobody knows.
Anyone claiming certainty can’t be trusted.
We crave certainty.
But the future is endlessly unpredictable.
“The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising.” — Daniel Kahneman
Predictions that felt obvious months ago look absurd today.
It’s always been that way.
Jeff Bezos said he’s often asked what will change in the next ten years.
Almost nobody asks what won’t change.
He says the second question is far more important.
Nobody knows what’s coming.
So focus instead on what stays constant.
There will always be financial crises.
We just don’t know when.
Building valuable skills will always help.
We just don’t know which job you’ll have in ten years.
People will always prefer high quality, low prices, and great service.
We just don’t know the exact product.
Speculating about the future is useless.
Success depends on countless unpredictable factors.
You can’t foresee exactly what’s next.
But you can prepare for possibilities.
Expect major disruptions at least once every decade.
You won’t know when or where.
But if you expect them, you won’t panic when they come.
You’ll build safety margins.
You’ll build flexibility.
When people ask what you’re preparing for, say this: